The Bank of England (BoE) enacted a 25 basis point (bps) increase in line with expectations. However, the central bank's tone seems to lean toward a less hawkish stance. A significant alteration in the statement suggests a willingness for a "higher for longer" approach instead of pursuing further rate hikes.
Recent noteworthy economic indicators, including the latest employment report, indicated continued wage growth even amid a slight uptick in the unemployment rate. The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) surpassed expectations, hinting at potential stagflation.
On a different note, the UK's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) results were disappointing across various sectors, notably with the Services sector deteriorating into contraction.
Market sentiment anticipates another 25 bps hike by the BoE in September.
Examining the daily chart, it becomes evident that the recent upward movement of the GBPJPY pair exhibited divergence with the MACD indicator. Such divergence typically signals a weakening momentum, frequently paving the way for pullbacks or even reversals.
In this instance, the price retraced to the former resistance level, which has now assumed the role of support. This development might culminate in a classic "break and retest" pattern, particularly given the added confluence with the red 21-day moving average.
However, should the price sustain its downward trajectory, this would validate the reversal hypothesis, potentially setting the stage for a shift in trend. In such a scenario, the next pivotal point to watch for would be the significant trendline.
Examining the 4-hour chart, another significant factor comes into play: the 50% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with the trendline, adding further layers of confluence to the analysis. Additionally, the recent price behavior following the bearish impulse resembles a bearish flag pattern, which further contributes to the overall context.
Anticipating potential scenarios, if the price manages to breach the 184.00 support level, it's likely to attract an influx of selling pressure, potentially guiding it toward the trendline. Conversely, for buyers to assert dominance, a decisive break above the most recent swing high is crucial. This would empower them to target the prior peak at 186.73, with the possibility of even triggering a breakout move.
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